r/leagueoflegends Oct 03 '22 Helpful 1 Wholesome 1

Crystal Ball Pick'Em Worlds 2022 - Day 4 Provisional Results

Hi again.

First of all thank you so much to all the people that gave me awards and corrected me on my mistakes yesterday, i really appreciate it :)

Now let's get to the biggest changes to the stats:

  • Sylas has made an appearance for the first time as both 3rd most picked and 3rd highest winrate champion;
  • As more games are played and player's KDAs keep dropping DRX Pyosik has been dethroned as 3rd highest kda by EG Inspired;
  • Inspired has also made another appearance alongside teammate Kaori as the player with most champions played, most likely derived from the 2 tiebreakers played by EG today.
  • Fnatic and DRX secured 1st place in their respective groups and those categories are now closed! I will keep them on the infographic just for completion's sake

That's it for today's updates. If you see something wrong please let me know and i'll fix it ASAP.

https://preview.redd.it/6m0vk9hqnkr91.png?width=4800&format=png&auto=webp&s=76e757e939d4ede32e27d02ff614882ae14b9378

EDIT: Soo my jetlagged brain is failing me after 4 nights of staying up all night watching League games. who knew that could happen ahah. So as many of you pointed out i forgot to add the pentakill from the first game and the Most champions played category was also wrong cause my spreadsheet wasn't counting the last rows of the table lol. Thank you to everyone who corrected me!

541 Upvotes

431

u/AnotherMeal Oct 03 '22

I need more supports to pick Nautilus, trust me it’s good haha :)

101

u/beautheschmo :kobro: Oct 03 '22

I had him as most picked and most deaths, thought teams would actually start banning Aatrox and Maokai at this point lol

68

u/kloricker Oct 03 '22

You would have had to study psychology to get this right. It was really easy to deduce that Aatrox would be banned. Listen up here, mate. Pro Players egos are so big they have a gravitation force field the size of dwarf planets. They see a slow animation champ like Aatrox and they think to themselves "No problem, I can outplay that guy". Every single player in the team thinks that. Aatrox is turbo broken, but no one will ban it. These are teams that dominated their domestic league. Their ego is inflated like my stomach after a night out at Taco Bell.

24

u/350 Oct 03 '22 edited Oct 03 '22

If it makes you feel better, I just defended my doctoral dissertation in clinical psychology and I picked Aatrox for most picked champ. I followed playoffs in several regions and came to the conclusion that pros would refuse to ban it. So I literally studied psychology to figure it out.

3

u/MrNugat Oct 03 '22

Congrats!

3

u/shrubs311 Oct 03 '22

fuck man you should've defended your dissertation like 2 weeks ago for my crystal ball picks to have slightly better chances

congrats btw!

16

u/Fabiocean Well, look at you! Oct 03 '22

They just have to pick Teemo and sidestep literally everything, no need to ban /s

2

u/No_Beginnin Oct 03 '22

If you’re curious nautilus is current 6th in deaths at 38.

4

u/ProNamath Oct 03 '22

I mean the play-in teams are mostly all worse than the group stage teams. Expect the drafting to make more sense in group stage and then even more so in Playoffs.

3

u/FireVanGorder WE TAKE THOSE Oct 03 '22

I tried to big brain it and assumed people would be picking renekton into Aatrox to avoid having to ban it so uhhh my pickems suck ass

2

u/LuCactus Oct 03 '22

This is also my most picked and most deaths, for the same reason.

Also thought if Cait was a bigger deal, less Kalista would see play and be banned less due to that. I was wrong!

32

u/undeadpz Oct 03 '22

I don't think its possible to play nautilus and have less than 8 deaths

14

u/TheFeathersStorm Oct 03 '22

Tell that to my 7 death Nautilus strat 😎

It doesn't work very well. I lose a lot.

5

u/limito1 944 of 1134 Oct 03 '22

Have you tried dying more?

2

u/Crnogoraac Oct 03 '22

They picked Nautilus, he had 0 deaths, something like 0/0/14 hahaha

4

u/AdvancedPhoenix Add Kcorp Flair Oct 03 '22

Weird way to spell Amumu.

3

u/M_a_l_t_u_s Oct 03 '22

You actually picked Amumu? I wasn’t even aware it would be a pick on this patch beforehand.

3

u/AdvancedPhoenix Add Kcorp Flair Oct 03 '22

Yeah I did haha

6

u/SingularBread I Believe Oct 03 '22

I put ornn as most picked thinking "it's a safe pick, that everyone plays right now"

Should've went with what was broken

2

u/Brovenkar C9_FIGHTING Oct 03 '22

Me too :)

236

u/Mushroomglider Oct 03 '22

Should include an honorary nautilus death counter as seems like 50% of people had him for most deaths

97

u/Bebriggle Oct 03 '22

I’m also tracking the data. If you’re curious nautilus is current 6th in deaths at 38.

40

u/saruthesage Ssumdaddy simpDoinb's douyu girlfiend Oct 03 '22

Not bad, he wasn’t picked much earlier in the tournament

23

u/Jozoz Oct 03 '22

I think he was only picked in like 7 games. That is a lot of deaths per game lol.

14

u/i_hatechildren Oct 03 '22

We need hyli to pick him and we are good.

3

u/M_a_l_t_u_s Oct 03 '22

Too bad Fnatic went straight to groups.

8

u/FireVanGorder WE TAKE THOSE Oct 03 '22

One Hyli pick and we’re back in business

11

u/AdvancedPhoenix Add Kcorp Flair Oct 03 '22

I put mumu, I felt super clever when doing it, and now I feel stupid I didn't think about Naut / Leona.

But maybe mumu will be more picked with that winrate?

4

u/justmytak Oct 03 '22

He will be banned more too so it's a gamble either way

2

u/unjointed Oct 04 '22

I put mumu too, lack of a shield I thought would make him a better contender, and can’t hook away when on the run

74

u/A_Life_of_Lemons Oct 03 '22

Really need those cloud dragons to start pulling ahead.

17

u/MihaiBosBarosHD Reddit approved wholesome 100 monsutah champ(Gigachad) Oct 03 '22

Ppl think that drake pick was complete rng and to some extent it was but it also matters how strong a soul is. Think about it if you know the enemy team is on a broken soul point then you are more likely to try and deny it or it's gg

27

u/DoorHingesKill Oct 03 '22

It is complete RNG. Look at last year's Worlds, ~500 drake sample size.

Three of the four drakes are within 2 games of each other, like going up in 2 game increments.

Mountain: 122.

Infernal: 124.

Cloud: 126.

Ocean: 134.

Now can we conclude from that that pros know Ocean > Cloud thus taking it 6% more times? No, obviously not. This was before Cloud Soul buffs. If teams were able to prioritize one soul (Ocean) they would have been able to deprioritize Cloud.

But they're not. They kill whatever dragon is in front of them, and the enemy team will try to contest third and fourth dragon if they possibly can, no matter what Soul they're about to loose.

-12

u/MihaiBosBarosHD Reddit approved wholesome 100 monsutah champ(Gigachad) Oct 03 '22

I didn't say that the difference would be enormous but it is there and the data you showed proves the fact that I'm right lol

6

u/maxintos Oct 03 '22

That's not how statistics work. If you flip a coin 166 times and it lands heads 122 times and tails 134 would you be confident that it's some kind of weighted/biased coin?

Don't you think the tiny difference can be explained by pure chance?

8

u/russellx3 EUphoria Oct 03 '22

I picked cloud because it's the hardest to solo early. I thought this meant it would be taken later as a first drake, but since first drake is always taken at some point, it being first just means soul is less likely to be taken in those games. Idk I think that pick 'em was total rng without a massive sample size, but maybe there's something I'm forgetting

2

u/shrubs311 Oct 03 '22

Idk I think that pick 'em was total rng without a massive sample size, but maybe there's something I'm forgetting

pretty much this, i think it might actually be the most RNG pickem out of all of them since players can't affect dragon spawns and only 3 types will spawn each game.

i picked hextech not because of the soul strength but because the gates are fun. equally logical arguments with this much randomness

2

u/russellx3 EUphoria Oct 03 '22

Yeah. I do think with a large enough sample size you might see some trends, but it would have to be a lot bigger than the number of games at worlds

2

u/Resies Oct 03 '22

This is why I was between infernal and hextech.

64

u/Pixel_Productions Moonstone :) Oct 03 '22

Isurus is actually tied with Chiefs at 24. A 2nd Baron was also stolen today at 23:08 by HuSha in the Fnatic vs Beyond game today.

9

u/yukopotemia Oct 03 '22

Yeah, I was confused that Baron steals was still on 1.

2

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

Fixed! Thank you!

50

u/_Jetto_ Oct 03 '22

really funny how DRX and RNG were in same group lol

16

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

very lucky for group a teams

36

u/Ap_Sona_Bot Oct 03 '22

Not really, now a group A team has to go up against RNG. If the groups were even, the 3-4 teams would both be up against likely EG and FNC

23

u/[deleted] Oct 03 '22

[deleted]

-8

u/AdvancedPhoenix Add Kcorp Flair Oct 03 '22

It's not "lucky" from FNC, it's the third seed, it's normal they have a good seeding.

11

u/silencebreaker86 Oct 03 '22

? They had just as much a chance to have them as to not, what did this seed have to do with anything

-1

u/AdvancedPhoenix Add Kcorp Flair Oct 03 '22

Mad and FNC had the same seeding?

Edit: nope FNC was pool 1 while eg and mad were pool 2. So it's quite normal than FNC have a rather good seeding.

8

u/F0RGERY Oct 03 '22

Yeah, the weird seeding was having BYG over EG as pool 1, despite NA outperforming PCS at Worlds 2021, and MSI 2022 (2 out of last 4 events), and tying at Worlds 2020.

6

u/[deleted] Oct 03 '22

[deleted]

3

u/AdvancedPhoenix Add Kcorp Flair Oct 03 '22

Yeah this is true. My bad.

3

u/llrrkk Oct 03 '22

Well, with the Riot seeding, Group B could’ve been worse by swapping EG with SGB to make 4 major region teams in one group lol

40

u/D_Neon Riot fucked the OPL Oct 03 '22

Haven't there been 2 baron steals? I thought there was one today?

13

u/indysavvy Oct 03 '22

Yea, Husha stole in BYG vs Fnatic.

35

u/CuteTao Oct 03 '22

I swear the cloud drake thing is totally rigged

17

u/NUFC9RW Oct 03 '22

They're just being saved for when Atlus casts.

80

u/[deleted] Oct 03 '22

[deleted]

24

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

sums up playins pretty well. hopefully group stage will be different

6

u/CptnPants Oct 03 '22

The win rate considering the amount of games played is insane and has to be a record.

4

u/Adept_Avocado_4903 Oct 03 '22

I had Aatrox in every slot for my Crystal Ball but at the figuratively last second I decided to go with more "reasonable" picks. I am regretting that choice now.

18

u/Bebriggle Oct 03 '22

Awesome stuff! Keep it up. Think I see 1 incorrect thing. ISG have played 24 champs I believe making them tied for 2nd. And DFM should be in 3rd with 22. Otherwise everything else matches my data.

Edit: should also be 2 baron steals

1

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

Omg yes lmao. My spreadsheet wasn't including the last rows so Zilean wasn't counted. Thanks i have fixed it now.

86

u/XXLepic Oct 03 '22

Swapped from Aatrox to Ornn, Fnatic to EG, And DRX to RNG last minute before lock ☠️

44

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

never change your answer last minute. never a good idea also tfw ornn was played an astonishing total of 2 times lmao rip

16

u/XXLepic Oct 03 '22

Ya I’m actually very surprised how little Ornn we’ve seen, especially in games Aatrox is banned. I’m guessing now it’s because he’s not needed now that engage supports are meta again

8

u/AdvancedPhoenix Add Kcorp Flair Oct 03 '22

Looks like teams prefer maokai than ornn, they are doing similar ish jobs.

3

u/AdvancedPhoenix Add Kcorp Flair Oct 03 '22

For some reason I put Yuumi best winrate. Why?

I guess still early in tournament, but it already looks like a dumb decision.

2

u/AleksibIsHot PM me Kai'Sa hentia Oct 03 '22

I have Soraka still time

2

u/russellx3 EUphoria Oct 03 '22

I picked fucking Lulu man I really underestimated the support meta change

3

u/FeelsPepegaMan Oct 03 '22

Same boat, switched from Kalista banned to Yuumi and DRX to RNG last sec

10

u/voltairelol peanut's #1 fan Oct 03 '22

same did all of these, i'm surprised we're seeing so little ornn. i wonder if we will see more in group stage. to be fair on the fnatic/eg swap, i was expecting at least like half the playins stage to be played with bean/rhuckz.

4

u/DarkBretticus300 Oct 03 '22

Yeah upset coming back last second caught me off guard. I definitely trolled that group.

2

u/rayzar2001 Oct 03 '22

I literally did the same ffssss

2

u/Omnilatent Oct 03 '22

I picked Poppy most played and now wonder what happened to her considering she was basically p/b in most playoffs games. She didn't get nerfed, did she?!

11

u/Zanghyy Oct 03 '22

Nautilus believers assemble

36

u/Gemini_Atlas Oct 03 '22

I originally had Fnatic and DRX as top of the group. Flipped it 20 minutes before the lock. Can I blame Raz?

9

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

ill allow it

7

u/AdvancedPhoenix Add Kcorp Flair Oct 03 '22

Fnc top was obvious!!! The drama started early meaning it had time to calm before matches!

16

u/Bebriggle Oct 03 '22

Crazy stat: Aatrox has 100% (1st most) presence and Sylas has 72% (3rd most) presence and still have the 1st and 3rd highest win rates. They are truely high-value picks in the current meta.

14

u/Vyoh Oct 03 '22

Weird way of writing unbalanced

2

u/Grroarrr Oct 03 '22

The winrates don't mean much now as the skill difference in most games was too high.

5

u/Foothe Oct 03 '22

Happy to see your infographics! Thanks for the summaries as always

5

u/averysillyman Tree Enjoyer Oct 03 '22

Pretty sure there was a baron steal today, so the number should be at 2.

1

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

Fixed! Thanks

6

u/CommanderRiver Oct 03 '22

That's wonderful work mate, thank you for the infographic!

5

u/Hayuume Oct 03 '22

Geniune question.

It's my first time collecting drops and by far I've got tons of emotes and 2-3 icons and nothing else. Is it always like this? I was kinda excited because I saw some people talking about the fact you can get tons of orange essence and stuff, but so far it is a little bit sad.

5

u/Fabiocean Well, look at you! Oct 03 '22

Once you got all new emotes and icons, you can disenchant the duplicates for OE.

3

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

Play in stage doesn't usually have very good drops. Keep watching! :)

2

u/Hayuume Oct 03 '22

Thank you. I'll keep doing it for sure.

2

u/Grroarrr Oct 03 '22

Yes, most of the essence comes from disenchanting duplicates. Actually good drops on their own are extremely rare.

5

u/simplyapollo Oct 03 '22

Which group is Fnatic going into?

10

u/Bebriggle Oct 03 '22

I think they are locked group A assuming RNG will mak it out of play-ins.

10

u/simplyapollo Oct 03 '22 edited Oct 03 '22

I just did the math, DRX goes group C, because they are the only ones without a Korean team. And if RNG win, which they will; they will go Group D. If EG win their Bo5 they would go Group B because they can't be seeded with C9, so therefore Fnatic will go Group A. If Mad Lions win vs EG, then either Fnatic goes into Group A because they have first seed priority, and MAD is seeded into Group B with G2 (Riot said only EU teams can be double seeded), or they do a draw which gives Fnatic a 50/50 shot of going in Group A or Group B. So Fnatic roughly have a ~75% of going Group A, depending on those variables and how heavily they are weighted in likelihood.

Edited: for incorrectly identifing the groups

15

u/1Revenant1 Oct 03 '22

Only MAD is able to go to group with other EU team, since they are 4th seed and replacement for russian team

8

u/Andyrocks56 Oct 03 '22

Did you look at the groups with the wrong lettering? Group D has a Korean team in Gen.G. Group C has a Chinese team in JDG. Group A has C9.

Groups: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/World_Championship/2022/Group_Stage

2

u/simplyapollo Oct 03 '22

Yes I did. I was looking at lolesport pickems on the group stage and i just read them left to right. I will edit my comment.

5

u/Bebriggle Oct 03 '22

I think you have the groups wrong. But your math checks out. Only thing is riot said in the event both EU get out of play-ins, the 4th seed would be allowed to double-group. Therefore if the expected result is DRX, RNG, FNC, and MAD/EG, then: FNC - A MAD/EG - B DRX - C RNG - D Only wait to avoid this is RNG getting eliminated.

2

u/simplyapollo Oct 03 '22

If Riot said that, then; FNC has a 100% chance of going into Group A.

3

u/Bebriggle Oct 03 '22

Not if RNG get eliminated (however unlikely) since group D also lacks an EU currently.

4

u/Effet_Pygmalion Oct 03 '22

I put thresh at most death but no one picks him

5

u/thenicob Oct 03 '22

there are two baron steals and please for the love of my OCD swap yutapon and zeka in the picture according to their names

3

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

AHAHAHAH I got you bro. Fixed

3

u/TheMoraless Oct 03 '22

Everyone was talking about Nautilus deaths and it was making me lose faith in my choice, so I'm glad to see Leona is top 3. I think Maokai will end up #1 though simply off the back of an absurd presence this patch because he's looking enticingly busted. The difference with Aatrox being that players tend not to ban tank characters as frequently even when they're strong (e.x.: Ornn).

3

u/Omnilatent Oct 03 '22

Maokai unkillable tho lol

4

u/Fabiocean Well, look at you! Oct 03 '22

The difference with Aatrox being that players tend not to ban tank characters as frequently even when they're strong (e.x.: Ornn).

Tbf Aatrox gets banned way less then he should as well

3

u/justAnotherRandomP Oct 03 '22

I dont watch all games but im sure there is at least 2 baron steals now (Xiaohu Leblanc and yesterday Sejuani vs fnatic stole baron)

2

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

My lack of sleep showing ahah. Thanks for pointing it out

3

u/justAnotherRandomP Oct 03 '22

Im paying attention to it because I predicted 9+ 🤣

2

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

Omg same idk why i thought that was a good idea

3

u/CuddlyHumanoid Oct 03 '22

Any Renekton enjoyers please, I need you. Am happy with my sylas highest wr and maokai in most roles though. Also my hextech drake is looking good!

3

u/Resies Oct 03 '22

I have sylas as highest rinate > 5 because he's moderately niche and seems picked by good players or when there are juicy ults. Hopping Kalista keeps up most banned.

4

u/camelfucker1955 Sadge Oct 03 '22

I forgot which player or caster or twitter personality whose pickems I copied from but they had the literal worst read on the meta I’ve ever seen in my life

2

u/Rizeunlisted 100T PGG RNG Oct 03 '22

Ban mf more 🥺

2

u/Matumu Oct 03 '22

well baron steal from byg vs fnc

2

u/kloricker Oct 03 '22

I am being griefed by Clown drake not being Soul ever.

2

u/Blame_on_you Oct 03 '22

Any Leona believers?

2

u/xNesku Oct 03 '22

I'm happy with the Aatrox most picked. My Caitlyn most banned is scaling. Pissed about bad teams picking Fiora for highest winrate. I need teams to flex the fuck out of Seraphine. Please dear God.

2

u/Fabiocean Well, look at you! Oct 03 '22

I really hope my highest winrate prediction for Kassadin pays off. We only need to see him 5 times...

2

u/VERTIKAL19 Oct 03 '22

Hey I got at least some of those predictions! Most banned, Group A Champion and most kiled drake. 3+ Pentas also looks promising

2

u/beruon Oct 03 '22

I was stupid putting G2 as most champions played. Literally no way that a team gets that who were not in the play-ins lmao.

2

u/Accomplished-Lion-76 Oct 03 '22

hope to see some Heimerdinger with Conqueror as a counterpick vs Aatrox .
Heimerdinger is actually really goood in 3 lanes (top,mid,support), hidden op champ.

2

u/greendino71 Oct 03 '22

REALLY surprised we havent seen gragas yes

In champs que he was played in wvery role but bot

2

u/bigbrain200iq Oct 03 '22

Go leona go die more

2

u/tiramisu456 Oct 03 '22

Man I got baited into picking Ornn as most picked character… should have stuck to Aatrox

1

u/ArshanGamer I shoot things Oct 03 '22

Feel you. Also picked draven for highest wr 🤡

6

u/DRtedybear Oct 03 '22

I predicted chiefs to win group A ☠️

19

u/Just-Ad-5972 Oct 03 '22

Did you buy into the meme rumour that they're good?

6

u/saruthesage Ssumdaddy simpDoinb's douyu girlfiend Oct 03 '22

If only they used Dragku they would’ve won worlds copium

4

u/[deleted] Oct 03 '22

[deleted]

2

u/DRtedybear Oct 03 '22

So I saw that they did really well in OCE (still Oce but still) plus they h-d Arthur who was on HLE last year, albeit not great I thought he would be okay.

In addition to that, No Dannyfor EG and I did it at the time Upset wasn’t in Mexico yet.

2

u/NSamurai22 Oct 03 '22

I was at least expecting them to do decent against other wildcards, but they didn't even manage that after the 27-1. Shame.

2

u/sp0j Oct 03 '22

I picked Upset as my KDA player. I'm happy with my choice. Even if they get eliminated in groups I still trust he will protect that KDA.

1

u/Ap_Sona_Bot Oct 03 '22

I have a suggestion. Since AFAIK you only get points for correct picks, you should eliminate teams that are out of contention and mark them off the day they are eliminated. For example, today you could cross off Chiefs and Isurus from most champions played since they can't pass EG

2

u/indysavvy Oct 03 '22

There's still 2nd and 3rd place points though.

1

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

Right now they are still 2nd and 3rd place which can still award points. So i'll keep them in here until another team surpasses them. Thanks for the suggestion though

1

u/saltyfuck111 Oct 03 '22

You sure rhuckz doesnt count? others are saying you could pick him and he does count.

1

u/ShadowGrif Oct 03 '22

i'll add him if i see more people saying that but when i checked he wasnt there

1

u/ZtheLegends Oct 04 '22

Rhuckz, Fnatic substitute support has a kda of 22. Doesn’t it count?

1

u/ShadowGrif Oct 04 '22

afaik he was not one of the options in the pickems